The balance of the Ulster County Legislature is at stake this November.Until the endorsements of the Conservative and Independence Parties are made official, it is premature to weigh in on specific candidates.
However, the battlegrounds can be easily narrowed down to specific Legislative districts.
District One
Deal or no deal down there, this district would have been Dems 3, Republicans 1. OR 4 Dems. It is a heavily Democratic District. Sue Cummings has been a Legislator down there for over 25 years and was able to hold on to her seat because of that. Any new comer or old comer Republican would have been hard pressed to retain Cummings' seat much less pick up 2 seats.
District Two
Same deal as District One.... heavily Democratic District, two incumbents Monserate stands no chance.
District Three
Typically this district is the same deal as District Two, heavily Democratic and 3 incumbents. No one will beat the Paretes, but since the former incumbent Kraft left and Hochberg was appointed, the Conservative and Independence endorsements could affect this race. One seat in District Three remains in play.
District Four
This entire District is up for grabs. Roberti, like Sue Cummings is a long time incumbent and he is leaving due to the hatch act. Aiello is a town favorite, but his failure to show up for his job as a Legislator may have worn thin on the voters this year. This is a race to watch.
District Five
This is entire Town and District will be a bloodbath. Anything can happen. Let the games begin.
District Six
District Six will remain Democrat, but the real story here is incumbent Alderman Mike Madsen who was snubbed by his own party is out carrying petitions to primary against Jeanette and Frank. Let the Democratic games begin in this District.
District Seven
This District may prove to be one of the key battle grounds (in addition to four and eight). This is one district that definitely needs to be watched, and the 3rd party endorsements will play a big part in this District. Let the games begin.
District Eight
Drama Drama Drama Drama and more Drama. No official word if the Democrats are even putting anyone up. The only thing to say about this District is that it is in competition with District Five for the District for the biggest bloodbath of the election season. This is definitely a race to watch, but not because of the 3rd party lines. This is going to be a war of campaigning.
District Nine
The Democrats have Districts Two, Six, Ten and Twelve sewn up by enrollment advantage and lack of opposition. The Republicans have had this District locked up by enrollment advantage for years. Nothing will change here. Four Rs will all win easily.
District Ten
New Paltz, two Dems, no Republicans, no race.
District Eleven
Even without the third party endorsements announced yet, Maio has a shot at taking out Decker. Hansut is safe. Watch this race, but it will be not be anywhere as exciting as Eight or Five.
District Twelve
Kingston, two Dems, two Republicans. It would be really great if this were a race. Maybe the Democrats in Kingston have had ENOUGH of the Kingston crew. Antics by Democrats like Ann Marie DiBella and Mayor Sottile may have worn thin on the voters. Maybe it's time for a change? When is the last time that Dave Donaldson or Pete Loughran had to WORK for their Legislative seats? Maybe this is the year.
All being said, the race to watch from most exciting to least exciting are:
1. Tie for District Five and Eight - WOW
2. Tie for District Four and Seven
3. District Six
4. Tie for District Three Eleven and Twelve
5. District One and Two
6. District Nine, and Ten
8 comments:
There are Republican candidates in District 12. Mark Ingoglio and Jean Jacobs are running.
Why do you think 5 and 8 will be a "bloodbath" Len? Legislature races are not Exec races and most of these people are seasoned, well respected campaigners. They will work hard and let the voters decide. This is the county legislature, not the U.S. Senate, the legislature doesn't do "bloodbaths".
Sorry, I'm not Len Bernardo. He is Independence Party - I am Independent.
As for the graphic with the Capitol in the background, it was the only graphic I could find with a donkey and elephant.
I stand by my predictions.
Thanks for the update 9:36. I was not aware of that. I still think that the enrollment advantage will favor Donaldson and Loughran.
Len has his own blog - UlsterLogic
You may not be Len, but based on your analysis, you are as much an amateur as he is. Bloodbath? For county legislature? What is your basis for that keen observation pray tell?
Look for Fabiano and Sweeney in dist 4. Bischoff may be out along with Aiello.
Shouldn't you update the post to refelct the 2 candidates in 12?
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